GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

被引：186

作者：

Caron, L. ^{[1
]}

Ivins, E. R. ^{[1
]}

Larour, E. ^{[1
]}

Adhikari, S. ^{[1
]}

Nilsson, J. ^{[1
]}

Blewitt, G. ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA

[2] Univ Nevada, Nevada Bur Mines & Geol, Reno, NV 89557 USA

[3] Univ Nevada, Dept Phys, Reno, NV 89557 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2018年 / 45卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家航空航天局;

关键词：

GIA; Bayesian; statistics; uncertainty; GRACE; GLACIAL-ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT; SEA-LEVEL RISE; ICE-SHEET; MANTLE VISCOSITY; MASS TRENDS; GRAVITY; ANTARCTICA; WATER; GREENLAND; SURFACE;

D O I：

10.1002/2017GL076644

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (2mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14years of GRACE data in polar regions.

引用

页码：2203 / 2212

页数：10

共 83 条

[1] Computations of the viscoelastic response of a 3-D compressible Earth to surface loading: an application to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Antarctica and Canada [J].