Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

被引：5

作者：

Zhang, Nan ^{[1
]}

Cheng, Xiao-Qing ^{[1
]}

Deng, Bin ^{[2
]}

Rui, Jia ^{[2
]}

Qiu, Luxia ^{[2
]}

Zhao, Zeyu ^{[2
]}

Lin, Shengnan ^{[2
]}

Liu, Xingchun ^{[2
]}

Xu, Jingwen ^{[2
]}

Wang, Yao ^{[2
]}

Yang, Meng ^{[2
]}

Zhu, Yuanzhao ^{[2
]}

Huang, Jiefeng ^{[2
]}

Liu, Chan ^{[2
]}

Liu, Weikang ^{[2
]}

Luo, Li ^{[2
]}

Li, Zhuoyang ^{[2
]}

Li, Peihua ^{[2
]}

Yang, Tianlong ^{[2
]}

Li, Zhi-Feng ^{[1
]}

Liang, Shu-Yi ^{[1
]}

Wang, Xiao-Chen ^{[1
]}

Hu, Jian-Li ^{[1
]}

Chen, Tianmu ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Jiangsu Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Dept Acute Infect Dis Control & Prevent, 172 Jiangsu Rd, Nanjing 210009, Peoples R China

[2] Xiamen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, State Key Lab Mol Vaccinol & Mol Diagnost, Xiamen 361102, Fujian, Peoples R China

来源：

PARASITES & VECTORS | 2021年 / 14卷 / 01期

基金：

比尔及梅琳达.盖茨基金会;

关键词：

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome; Bunyavirus; Mathematical model; Environment; Ticks; Transmission; Dynamic; TICK-BORNE DISEASES; SYNDROME VIRUS; HUBEI PROVINCE; BUNYAVIRUS; INFECTION; ANIMALS; SEROPREVALENCE; SFTS;

D O I：

10.1186/s13071-021-04732-3

中图分类号：

R38 [医学寄生虫学]; Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ; 100103 ;

摘要：

Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is regionally distributed in Asia, with high fatality. Constructing the transmission model of SFTS could help provide clues for disease control and fill the gap in research on SFTS models. Methods: We built an SFTS transmission dynamics model based on the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model and the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province. This model was used to evaluate the effect by cutting off different transmission routes and taking different interventions into account, to offer clues for disease prevention and control. Results: The transmission model fits the reported data well with a minimum R-2 value of 0.29 and a maximum value of 0.80, P < 0.05. Meanwhile, cutting off the environmental transmission route had the greatest effect on the prevention and control of SFTS, while isolation and shortening the course of the disease did not have much effect. Conclusions: The model we have built can be used to simulate the transmission of SFTS to help inform disease control. It is noteworthy that cutting off the environment-to-humans transmission route in the model had the greatest effect on SFTS prevention and control.

引用

页数：15

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