The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks

被引：11
|
作者：
Nannyonga, Betty [1 ]
Sumpter, David J. T. [2 ]
Mugisha, Joseph Y. T. [1 ]
Luboobi, Livingstone S. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Makerere Univ, Dept Math, Kampala, Uganda
[2] Uppsala Univ, Dept Math, S-75238 Uppsala, Sweden
来源：
PLOS ONE | 2012年 / 7卷 / 07期
关键词：
TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS; DISEASES; MALARIA; PERSISTENCE; INFECTION; EVOLUTION; ECOLOGY;
D O I：
10.1371/journal.pone.0041135
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R-0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.
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页数：8
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