Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

被引：65

作者：

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. ^{[1
,4
]}

Piniewski, Mikolaj ^{[3
,4
]}

Mezghani, Abdelkader ^{[2
]}

Okruszko, Tomasz ^{[3
]}

Pinskwar, Iwona ^{[1
]}

Kardel, Ignacy ^{[3
]}

Hov, Oystein ^{[2
]}

Szczesniak, Mateusz ^{[3
]}

Szwed, Malgorzata ^{[1
]}

Benestad, Rasmus E. ^{[2
]}

Marcinkowski, Pawel ^{[3
]}

Graczyk, Dariusz ^{[1
]}

Dobler, Andreas ^{[2
]}

Forland, Eirik J. ^{[2
]}

O'Keefe, Joanna ^{[3
]}

Chorynski, Adam ^{[1
]}

Parding, Kajsa M. ^{[2
]}

Haugen, Jan Erik ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Polish Acad Sci, Inst Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland

[2] Norwegian Meteorol Inst Met Norway, Oslo, Norway

[3] Warsaw Univ Life Sci SGGW, Warsaw, Poland

[4] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany

来源：

ACTA GEOPHYSICA | 2018年 / 66卷 / 06期

关键词：

Climate change; Climate change impact; Projections; Poland; NORTHERN FOOTHILLS; PROJECTIONS; STATIONARITY; VISTULA; DEAD;

D O I：

10.1007/s11600-018-0220-4

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish-Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971-2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

引用

页码：1509 / 1523

页数：15

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