Tidally induced variations of polar mesospheric cloud altitudes and ice water content using a data assimilation system

A variety of spaceborne experiments have observed polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) since the late 20th century. Many of these experiments are on satellites in Sun-synchronous orbits and therefore allow observations only at fixed local times (LT). Temperature oscillations over the diurnal cycle are an important source of PMC variability. In order to quantify long-term natural or anthropogenic changes in PMCs, it is therefore essential to understand their variation over the diurnal cycle. To this end, we employ a prototype global numerical weather prediction system that assimilates satellite temperature and water vapor observations from the ground to similar to 90 km altitude. We assemble the resulting 6 hourly high-altitude meteorological assimilation fields from June 2007 in both LT and latitude and use them to drive a one-dimensional PMC formation model with cosmic smoke serving as nucleation sites. We find that there is a migrating diurnal temperature tide at 69 degrees N with a variation of +/-4 K at 83 km, which controls the variation of PMC total ice water content (IWC) over the diurnal cycle. The calculated IWC is normalized to observations at 2300 LT by the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment and allowed to vary with temperature over the diurnal cycle. We find that the IWC at 69 degrees N has a single maximum between 0700 and 0800 LT and a minimum between 1900 and 2200 LT and varies by at least a factor of 5. The calculated variation of IWC with LT is substantially larger at 57 degrees N, with a single prominent peak near 0500 LT.