[1] Univ Nottingham, Div Publ Hlth & Epidemiol, Hlth Protect & Influenza Res Grp, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[2] Clin Microbiol & Publ Hlth Lab, Publ Hlth England, Cambridge, England
[3] Univ Edinburgh, Roslin Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
[4] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, London, England
[5] UCL, Dept Infect & Populat Hlth, London, England
[6] Univ Southampton, Southampton Gen Hosp, Clin & Expt Sci, Southampton, Hants, England
[7] Nottingham Univ Hosp NHS Trust, Dept Resp Med, Nottingham, England
[8] Univ Leicester, Dept Infect Immun & Inflammat, Leicester, Leics, England