Simple parameters predicting extrahepatic recurrence after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Extrahepatic recurrence (EHR) after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with a poor prognosis. We investigated the features of EHR and identified its predictive factors. This retrospective study included 398 treatment-naive patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HCC at two tertiary hospitals. Multivariate Cox-regression analysis was performed to identify the variables associated with EHR. EHR was diagnosed in 94 patients (23.6%) over a median follow-up period of 5.92 years, most commonly in the lungs (42.6%). The 5-/10-year cumulative rates of HCC recurrence and EHR were 63.0%/75.6% and 18.1%/35.0%, respectively. The median time to EHR was 2.06 years. Intrahepatic HCC recurrence was not observed in 38.3% of patients on EHR diagnosis. On multivariate analysis, pathologic modified Union for International Cancer Control stage (III, IVa), surgical margin involvement, tumor necrosis, sum of tumor size>7 cm, and macrovascular invasion were predictive factors of EHR. Four risk levels and their respective EHR rates were defined as follows: very low risk, 1-/5-year, 3.1%/11.6%; low risk, 1-/5-year, 12.0%/27.7%; intermediate risk, 1-/5-year, 36.3%/60.9%; and high risk, 1-year, 100.0%. Our predictive model clarifies the clinical course of EHR and could improve the follow-up strategy to improve outcomes.