Food systems and structural and rural transformation: a quantitative synthesis for low and middle-income countries

Structural and rural transformation in a country are intricately linked to food system outcomes. Structural transformation captures a country's level of dependence on agriculture, while rural transformation captures the productivity in the agricultural sector. Specifically, the agri-food system and employment transitions accompany country transformations and shape the spatial distribution of populations by influencing where people live, work and eat, all of which closely relate to food system transitions. We create a food systems index (FSI) capturing a rich set of drivers established in the literature. Using country level data from 85 low and middle-income countries (LMIC's), we analyse the linkages between food system, structural and rural transformations as well as spatial population distributions. We also analyse a large number of policy relevant variables using machine-learning methodology to shed light on patterns related to institutions, female empowerment, infrastructure and health. Our analysis indicates that rural-dominant countries in the lowest FSI group will see their youth populations more than double in the next 30 years, indicating that their food system investments today will affect one third of global youth in the future. Medium FSI countries need to invest more in the semi-rural and peri-urban areas. We find that structural transformation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for desirable food system outcomes. Rural transformation by itself without structural transformation is not enough either. For LMIC's, broad development interventions such as financial and digital connectivity as well as women's empowerment loom more important than narrowly focused interventions regarding progress in the food system.