A GIS-Based Bivariate Logistic Regression Model for the Site-Suitability Analysis of Parcel-Pickup Lockers: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

The site-suitability analysis (SSA) of parcel-pickup lockers (PPLs) is becoming a critical problem in last-mile logistics. Most studies have focused on the site-selection problem to identify the best site from given potential sites in specific areas, while few have solved the site-search problem to determine the boundary of the suitable area. A GIS-based bivariate logistic regression (LR) model using the supervised machine-learning (ML) algorithm was developed for suitability classification in this study. Eight crucial factors were selected from 27 candidate variables using stepwise methods with a training dataset in the best LR model. The variable of the proximity to residential buildings was more important than that to various commercial buildings, transport services, and roads. Among the four types of residential buildings, the most crucial factor was the proximity to residential quarters. A test dataset was employed for the validation process, showing that the best LR model had excellent performance. The results identified the suitable areas for PPLs, accounting for 8% of the total area of Guangzhou (GZ). A decision-maker can focus on these suitable areas as the site-selection ranges for PPLs, which significantly reduces the difficulty of analysis and time costs. This method can quickly decompose a large-scale area into several small-scale suitable areas, with relevance to the problem of selecting sites from various candidate sites.