Spatial-temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China

The ecological security of global marine fishery is facing severe threat. Overfishing and pollution contributes to drastic declines in sustainable fishing yields and generally curtails the ecological resilience of marine systems. However, marine fishery ecological system provides an essential source of sustenance and economic livelihood for populations throughout the world, and is considered the "backbone" of global food and nutrition security. Thus, sustaining marine fishery ecological security is essential for the future of economic and food security. This study used the modified ecological footprint model and Tapio elastic decoupling model to further research the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of marine fishery ecological footprint (EF) and the decoupling effects related to the fishery economy from 2010 to 2019 of 11 coastal provinces in China. The results showed that marine fishery EF from 2010 to 2019 of 11 coastal provinces in China increased in a fluctuating manner. The differences of spatial distribution pattern expanded, and "polarization" was prominent. The biocapacities (BC) of marine fishery were consistently stable overall, and those of the southern provinces were slightly better than those in the northern provinces. Spatial distribution pattern changed from relative dispersion to gradual concentration. Ecological deficit (ED) was continuously exacerbated in marine fishery, represented by the spatial expansion. Decoupling effects between the marine fishery EF and fishery economy in China were mainly subjected to weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling status. Additionally, combined with the prediction analysis of ARIMA model and GM(1,1) model, the marine fishery EF in China will increase overall in the future five years. The ecological security situation of marine fishery is extremely serious. These research findings provide profound significance for marine fishery sustainable development in China as well as for the coastal areas in other countries and serve as an important reference for the ecological security governance of global marine fishery.