Promiscuity and the evolution of sexual transmitted diseases

被引:5
作者
Gonçalves, S
Kuperman, M
Gomes, MFD
机构
[1] Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Inst Fis, BR-90501970 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
[2] Ctr Atom Bariloche, RA-8400 San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina
[3] IB, RA-8400 San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina
关键词
social dynamics; epidemic models; HIV; numerical simulations;
D O I
10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00429-1
中图分类号
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号
0702 ;
摘要
We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized in couples and interact with each other. The different social behaviors are incorporated assigning what we call a promiscuity value to each individual agent. The individual promiscuity is taken from a distribution and represents the daily probability of going out to took for a sexual partner, abandoning its eventual mate. In terms of this parameter we find a threshold for the epidemic which is much lower than the classical SIR model prediction, i.e., R-o (basic reproductive number) = 1. Different forms for the distribution of the population promiscuity are considered showing that the threshold is weakly sensitive to them. We study the homosexual and the heterosexual case as well. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:6 / 11
页数:6
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