Reconciling solar forecasts: Sequential reconciliation

被引：39

作者：

Yagli, Gokhan Mert ^{[1
]}

Yang, Dazhi ^{[2
]}

Srinivasan, Dipti ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Singapore, Singapore

[2] ASTAR, Singapore Inst Mfg Technol, Singapore, Singapore

来源：

SOLAR ENERGY | 2019年 / 179卷

关键词：

Forecast reconciliation; Operational forecasting; Numerical weather prediction;

D O I：

10.1016/j.solener.2018.12.075

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

When forecasting hierarchical photovoltaic (PV) power generation in a region and/or over several forecast horizons, reconciliation is needed to ensure the lower-level forecasts add up exactly to the upper-level forecasts. Previously in "Reconciling solar forecasts: Geographical hierarchy" [Sol. Energy 146 (2017) 276-286] and "Reconciling solar forecasts: Temporal hierarchy" [Sol. Energy 158 (2017) 332-346], forecast reconciliation has been demonstrated for geographical and temporal hierarchies, separately. This article follows such frameworks and extends the reconciliation to spatio-temporal cases. More specifically, sequential reconciliation is used for operational day-ahead forecasting of 318 PV systems in California. It is shown that by using sequential reconciliation, aggregate-consistent forecasts can be obtained across both the geographical and temporal hierarchies. In addition, the forecast accuracy can be further improved from that of the single-hierarchy cases.

引用

页码：391 / 397

页数：7

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