Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model

被引：142
作者：
Hook, Mikael [1 ]
Zittel, Werner [2 ]
Schindler, Joerg [2 ]
Aleklett, Kjell [1 ]
机构：
[1] Uppsala Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, SE-75121 Lagerhyddsvagen 1, Sweden
[2] Ludwig Bolkow Syst Tech GmbH, D-85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
来源：
FUEL | 2010年 / 89卷 / 11期
关键词：
Future coal production; Peak coal; Logistic model; Historical reserve and resource assessments; RESOURCE DEPLETION; ENERGY; OIL; RESERVES; UNTIL;
D O I：
10.1016/j.fuel.2010.06.013
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world's coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码：3546 / 3558
页数：13
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