FOOD SECURITY IN CRISIS SITUATIONS: FOCUS ON BEEF, PORK AND POULTRY MEAT

Food security lies in effort to provide to population such resources of agricultural raw materials with transformation to food, that consumption habits are maintained. The aim of the paper is to assess the height of domestic production to preserve current consumption structure of beef, pork and poultry in the Czech Republic (CR) and not to overcome production possibilities in crisis if imports, exports or both are limited or impossible. The development is simulated by optimization model AGRO-2014 that links agriculture, food industry, trade and food consumption. Five scenarios were calculated. In case of a crisis where imports are eliminated, and exports kept at the current level (scenario 1), the level of domestic resources would be exceeded. The need for areas for growing not only feed crops exceeds the land in the CR by 66%. Therefore, scenario 2 - crisis when import and export are impossible - was considered. Even in this case, the Czech area would not be sufficient. In scenario 3, imports are limited to 20% of current levels and the country does not export. Then the land area would be sufficient. It would require less sucker cows, but significantly more pigs and poultry. Scenario 4 (where imports are possible from 50% while export is on 50% level) needs slightly more cattle but pork could be partly imported. The increase in land claims would exceed available by 20%. Optimal use of land would occur in scenario 5 with imports on 50% level and exports reduced to 18%. It is problematic to increase the export of agricultural commodities while reducing imports. In the case of pork, it would be necessary to increase the number of pigs to cover domestic consumption and exports to the extent that it would be impossible to provide enough grain feed due to lack of available land.