Regional Projection of Tropical-Cyclone-Induced Extreme Precipitation around Japan Based on Large Ensemble Simulations

被引：15

作者：

Hatsuzuka, Daisuke ^{[1
]}

Sato, Tomonori ^{[1
]}

Yoshida, Kohei ^{[2
]}

Ishii, Masayoshi ^{[2
]}

Mizuta, Ryo ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Hokkaido Univ, Fac Environm Earth Sci, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan

[2] Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

来源：

SOLA | 2020年 / 16卷

关键词：

SURFACE WIND FIELDS; FUTURE CHANGES; TYPHOON; CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY; ROBUSTNESS; RAINFALL; IMPACTS;

D O I：

10.2151/sola.2020-005

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

This study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) around Japan using large ensemble regional climate simulations for historical and +4 K climates. Under the wanner climate, extreme TC precipitation, defined as the 90th percentile value of the maximum daily precipitation derived from each TC (TCP90), is projected to increase throughout Japan from Kyushu to Kanto. We attributed most of the increase in TCP90 to increased atmospheric moisture due to global warming. Furthermore, it was found that TCP90 is projected to increase for all TC intensity categories. However, the projected increase in intense TCs affects TCP90 in only a limited area. Stronger TCs enhance TCP90 over east- and north-facing slopes of mountainous terrain, while TCP90 in most other areas is insensitive to TC intensity. These results suggest that even relatively weak TCs could have potential to produce extreme precipitation that might cause natural disasters.

引用

页码：23 / 29

页数：7

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