Understanding service uncertainties in industrial product-service system cost estimation

The global transition towards service orientation is posing challenges in cost estimation for manufacturers driven by the uncertainties that arise at the bidding stage of long-lasting performance-based contracts (i.e. availability). Service uncertainty is driven by the quality of information flow and knowledge across a given service network; however, it commonly suffers from the unavailability of useful data to assist cost predictions. Currently, consideration of cost uncertainty for an industrial product-service system is lacking in literature. To fill this gap, this paper combines literature in service and uncertainty in cost estimation to propose the components of a service delivery system, classification of sources of uncertainty based on supply and demand and the suitable uncertainty modelling methods for service cost estimation. The paper categorises service uncertainties in a demand and supply approach, whilst also allocating the types of uncertainty into aleatory and epistemic to propose suitable uncertainty modelling approaches. For future research, various areas such as consideration of a holistic approach to account for service uncertainties and development of a framework to support inter-linkages across a service network are proposed.