Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

被引：1

作者：

Kleptsova, Olga S. ^{[1
]}

Dijkstra, Henk A. ^{[1
]}

van Westen, Rene M. ^{[1
]}

van der Boog, Carine G. ^{[2
]}

Katsman, Caroline A. ^{[2
]}

James, Rebecca K. ^{[3
,4
]}

Bouma, Tjeerd J. ^{[3
,4
]}

Klees, Roland ^{[5
]}

Riva, Riccardo E. M. ^{[5
]}

Slobbe, D. Cornelis ^{[5
]}

Zijlema, Marcel ^{[2
]}

Pietrzak, Julie D. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands

[2] Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Dept Hydraul Engn Environm Fluid Mech, Delft, Netherlands

[3] Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Estuarine & Delta Syst, Yerseke, Netherlands

[4] Univ Utrecht, Yerseke, Netherlands

[5] Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Dept Geosci & Remote Sensing, Delft, Netherlands

来源：

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS | 2021年 / 126卷 / 09期

关键词：

impacts of tropical cyclones; climate change; SEA-LEVEL RISE; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; POTENTIAL IMPACT; COASTAL; SURGE; OCEAN; PROJECTIONS; ISLANDS; SURFACE; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1029/2020JC016869

中图分类号：

P7 [海洋学];

学科分类号：

0707 ;

摘要：

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

引用

页数：20

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