Modeling the role of carrier and mobile herds on foot-and-mouth disease virus endemicity in the Far North Region of Cameroon

被引:3
作者
Schnell, Patrick M. [1 ]
Shao, Yibo [2 ]
Pomeroy, Laura W. [3 ]
Tien, Joseph H. [4 ]
Moritz, Mark [5 ]
Garabed, Rebecca [6 ]
机构
[1] Ohio State Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Div Biostat, 1841 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[2] Ohio State Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Div Hlth Serv Management & Policy, 1841 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[3] Ohio State Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Div Environm Hlth Sci, 1841 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[4] Ohio State Univ, Dept Math, 231 W 18th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[5] Ohio State Univ, Dept Anthropol, 174 W 18th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[6] Ohio State Univ, Dept Vet Prevent Med, 1920 Coffey Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Asymptomatic carrier; Endemic; Foot-and-mouth disease virus; Gillespie algorithm mobile herd; Transmission kernel; UK FOOT; EPIDEMIC; DYNAMICS; SPREAD; TRANSMISSION; MOVEMENTS; LIVESTOCK; STATE; VACCINATION; PERSISTENCE;
D O I
10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100355
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
Foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is an RNA virus that infects cloven-hoofed animals, often produces either epidemic or endemic conditions, and negatively affects agricultural economies worldwide. FMDV epidemic dynamics have been extensively studied, but understanding of drivers of disease persistence in areas in which FMDV is endemic, such as most of sub-Saharan Africa, is lacking. We present a spatial stochastic model of disease dynamics that incorporates a spatial transmission kernel in a modified Gillespie algorithm, and use it to evaluate two hypothesized drivers of endemicity: asymptomatic carriers and the movement of mobile herds. The model is parameterized using data from the pastoral systems in the Far North Region of Cameroon. Our computational study provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that asymptomatic carriers, but not mobile herds, are a driver of endemicity.
引用
收藏
页数:7
相关论文
共 51 条
[1]   Aspects of the persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in animals - the carrier problem [J].
Alexandersen, S ;
Zhang, ZD ;
Donaldson, AI .
MICROBES AND INFECTION, 2002, 4 (10) :1099-1110
[2]  
Arzt J, 2018, MSPHERE, V3, DOI [10.1128/mSphere.00365-18, 10.1128/msphere.00365-18]
[3]   Lack of Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus From Persistently Infected Cattle to Naive Cattle Under Field Conditions in Vietnam [J].
Bertram, Miranda R. ;
Vu, Le T. ;
Pauszek, Steven J. ;
Brito, Barbara P. ;
Hartwig, Ethan J. ;
Smoliga, George R. ;
Hoang, Bui H. ;
Phuong, Nguyen T. ;
Stenfeldt, Carolina ;
Fish, Ian H. ;
Hung, Vo V. ;
Delgado, Amy ;
VanderWaal, Kimberley ;
Rodriguez, Luis L. ;
Long, Ngo T. ;
Dung, Do H. ;
Arzt, Jonathan .
FRONTIERS IN VETERINARY SCIENCE, 2018, 5
[4]   Review of the Global Distribution of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus from 2007 to 2014 [J].
Brito, B. P. ;
Rodriguez, L. L. ;
Hammond, J. M. ;
Pinto, J. ;
Perez, A. M. .
TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES, 2017, 64 (02) :316-332
[5]   Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations [J].
Bronsvoort, Barend M. deC. ;
Handel, Ian G. ;
Nfon, Charles K. ;
Sorensen, Karl-Johan ;
Malirat, Viviana ;
Bergmann, Ingrid ;
Tanya, Vincent N. ;
Morgan, Kenton L. .
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2016, 6
[6]   Risk factors for herdsman-reported foot-and-mouth disease in the Adamawa Province of Cameroon [J].
Bronsvoort, BMD ;
Nfon, C ;
Hamman, SM ;
Tanya, VN ;
Kitching, RP ;
Morgan, KL .
PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE, 2004, 66 (1-4) :127-139
[7]   THE DURATION OF THE FOOT-AND-MOUTH-DISEASE VIRUS CARRIER STATE IN AFRICAN BUFFALO (I) IN THE INDIVIDUAL ANIMAL AND (II) IN A FREE-LIVING HERD [J].
CONDY, JB ;
HEDGER, RS ;
HAMBLIN, C ;
BARNETT, ITR .
COMPARATIVE IMMUNOLOGY MICROBIOLOGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 1985, 8 (3-4) :259-265
[8]  
Di Nardo A, 2011, REV SCI TECH OIE, V30, P63
[9]   Epidemiological Analysis, Serological Prevalence and Genotypic Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Nigeria 2008-2009 [J].
Ehizibolo, D. O. ;
Perez, A. M. ;
Carrillo, C. ;
Pauszek, S. ;
AlKhamis, M. ;
Ajogi, I. ;
Umoh, J. U. ;
Kazeem, H. M. ;
Ehizibolo, P. O. ;
Fabian, A. ;
Berninger, M. ;
Moran, K. ;
Rodriguez, L. L. ;
Metwally, S. A. .
TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES, 2014, 61 (06) :500-510
[10]   Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain [J].
Ferguson, NM ;
Donnelly, CA ;
Anderson, RM .
NATURE, 2001, 413 (6855) :542-548