Model structure adequacy analysis: selecting models on the basis of their ability to answer scientific questions

被引:18
作者
Taper, Mark L. [1 ]
Staples, David F. [2 ]
Shepard, Bradley B. [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA
[2] Minnesota Dept Nat Resources, Fish & Wildlife Biometr Unit, Forest Lake, MN 55025 USA
[3] Montana Cooperat Fishery Res Unit, Bozeman, MT 59718 USA
关键词
model selection; model identification; model development; multi-model inference; bull trout; Salvelinus confluentus; monitoring;
D O I
10.1007/s11229-007-9299-x
中图分类号
N09 [自然科学史]; B [哲学、宗教];
学科分类号
01 ; 0101 ; 010108 ; 060207 ; 060305 ; 0712 ;
摘要
Models carry the meaning of science. This puts a tremendous burden on the process of model selection. In general practice, models are selected on the basis of their relative goodness of fit to data penalized by model complexity. However, this may not be the most effective approach for selecting models to answer a specific scientific question because model fit is sensitive to all aspects of a model, not just those relevant to the question. Model Structural Adequacy analysis is proposed as a means to select models based on their ability to answer specific scientific questions given the current understanding of the relevant aspects of the real world.
引用
收藏
页码:357 / 370
页数:14
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