Energy dependence, renewable energy generation and import demand: Are EU countries resilient?

In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of factors determining energy import demand of EU countries. We suggest a novel approach to study the role of renewable versus non renewable energy sources in shaping the demand for energy imports. The aim of the paper is twofold. First, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the EU energy market structure using country-by-country I-O tables to show the rate of interdependency between EU member states in terms of renewable and non renewable energy flows. Second, we investigate on the role of renewable energy sources in reducing energy dependency in EU countries. The econometric analysis uses data from 26 EU countries observed between 2007 and 2016 available from the Eurostat energy statistics database. The descriptive analysis of I-O electricity tables shows some degree of heterogeneity between countries in terms of energy in- and out-flows. Such heterogeneous market structure suggests the use of panel models in the econometric analysis. Moreover, a lasso regression method has been employed for variables selection to avoid the collinearity. The results show that benefits may arise from replacing energy imports with domestic energy production and from reducing energy dependency rate. Moreover, if import substitution occurs with domestic renewable energy sources additional positive effects are produced in terms of either energy dependency, energy security and sustainable development.