Industrial agglomeration and carbon neutrality in China: lessons and evidence

This study explored the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon neutrality and its spatial spillover effects utilizing the expanded the output density theoretical model of Ciccone and Hall. The main findings are as follows: (1) In terms of long-term effects, industrial output has significantly reduced regional carbon emissions, while industrial labor and capital agglomeration have aggravated carbon emissions, and industrial technology agglomeration has no significant impact on carbon emissions. (2) From the perspective of lagging effects, industrial output agglomeration has significantly increased regional carbon emissions, while industrial technology agglomeration has effectively reduced carbon emissions. The lagging effects of industrial labor and capital agglomeration are not significant. (3) From the perspective of regional differences, there are significant regional differences in the impact of industrial output and capital agglomeration on regional carbon emissions, while this differential influence does not exist on industrial labor and technological agglomeration. Therefore, in carbon emissions governance, it is necessary to analyze the long-term impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions but also to pay attention to the lag and regional differences of the impact.