Investigating the drivers of innovation diffusion in a low income country context. The case of adoption of improved maize seed in Malawi

To match the rapidly changing demand for food to its supply, agricultural productivity needs to be increased. The adoption of improved agricultural technologies is therefore crucial for sustainable agricultural development. In this paper we investigate the adoption dynamics of improved seed by farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers' expectation is found to be a particularly important element in defining the adoption decision process. The aim of this study is to assess ways to stimulate future expectation. Using survey data from Malawi, we examine the role of expectation in the decision-making process of farmers adopting improved seed. We use these data in a dynamic simulation model to assess historical seed adoption patterns in Malawi and examine how counterfeit seed and branding affect farmers expectations and adoption. The simulation model shows that the presence of counterfeit seed on the market can affect adoption considerably. Our analysis demonstrates, that branding has contributed to seed adoption in Malawi, confirming that it can further stimulate demand of improved seed. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.