A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere

被引：363

作者：

Santer, BD

Taylor, KE

Wigley, TML

Johns, TC

Jones, PD

Karoly, DJ

Mitchell, JFB

Oort, AH

Penner, JE

Ramaswamy, V

Schwarzkopf, MD

Stouffer, RJ

Tett, S

机构：

[1] LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATL LAB, DIV ATMOSPHER SCI, LIVERMORE, CA 94550 USA

[2] NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES, BOULDER, CO 80307 USA

[3] METEOROL OFF, HADLEY CTR CLIMATE PREDICT & RES, BRACKNELL RG12 2SY, BERKS, ENGLAND

[4] UNIV E ANGLIA, CLIMAT RES UNIT, NORWICH NR4 7TJ, NORFOLK, ENGLAND

[5] MONASH UNIV, COOPERAT RES CTR SO HEMISPHERE METEOROL, CLAYTON, VIC 3168, AUSTRALIA

[6] PRINCETON UNIV, NOAA, GEOPHYS FLUID DYNAM LAB, PRINCETON, NJ 08542 USA

来源：

NATURE | 1996年 / 382卷 / 6586期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1038/382039a0

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the-art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone concentrations. The degree of pattern similarity between models and observations increases through this period. It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities, although many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability.

引用

页码：39 / 46

页数：8

共 69 条

[31] SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS - A POSSIBLE GREENHOUSE GAS EFFECT [J].