Job Demands and Job Control and Future Labor Market Situation An 11-year Prospective Study of 2.2 Million Employees

Objectives: Investigate prospective associations between combinations of job demands/job control and future labor market situation. Methods: A population-based prospective cohort study of 2,194,694 individuals in paid work. Using multinomial logistic regression, we calculated the association between combinations of job demands/control in 2001, according to a job exposure matrix, and their long-term unemployment, sickness absence/disability pension, early old-age pension, emigration, and death in 2012. Results: Low demands/low control at baseline was associated with long-term sickness absence/disability pension at follow-up among both women and men (odds ratios [ORs] 1.49; 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 1.46-1.53). High demands/low control at baseline was associated with a higher likelihood of old-age pension among women (OR 1.91; CI 1.82-2.00), and with a lower likelihood among men (OR 0.59; CI 0.53-0.66). Conclusions: Combinations of job demands/job control in 2001 were associated with labor market situation in 2012.