Ten-year trends and 20-year projections of the incidence of lip and tongue cancer in Western Australia

Aim: Lip and tongue cancer account for about 40 and 14%, respectively, of all oral cancers in Western Australia. The aim of this study is to report on the trends in incidence rates of lip and tongue cancer in Western Australia over the last ten years, and to generate incidence projections up to the year 2025. Methods: Incidence data for the current analysis were obtained from the Western Australian Cancer Registry for the period 1995 to 2004. Results: Two projection methods indicate an increase in the numbers and rates of lip and tongue cancer cases over the next 19 years, showing that the number of lip cancer patients will increase from 122 in 1995 to between 395 and 477 in 2025, and the number of tongue cancer patients will increase from 41 in 1995 to between 112 and 135 in 2025. Conclusion: The projections indicate there will be increasing rates of lip and tongue cancer in Western Australia, especially in older people. With an ageing population this implies significantly increased caseloads of the most common oral cancers and planning future resource allocation should be considered.