Development of a civil aircraft dispatch reliability prediction methodology

This paper explains the development of a dispatch reliability prediction method for passenger aircraft. The method provides an objective means of assessing the delay rate for aircraft systems in the very early stages of aircraft design, leading to the minimisation of subsequent corrective actions, and thus reducing operating cost. The method encompasses two models: one each for short-haul and long-haul aircraft. It uses delay rate data and design/performance parameters to derive statistical equations, one set for each aircraft system. These equations relate the delay rate for a particular system to selected design/performance parameters. The models give high predictability and can be applied at the conceptual design phase, using the minimum amount of input data.