Spatio-temporal evaluation of various global circulation models in terms of projection of different meteorological drought indices

被引:11
作者
Balov, Mustafa [1 ]
Altunkaynak, Abdusselam [2 ]
机构
[1] Istanbul Gelisim Univ, Fac Engn & Architecture, Civil Engn Div, Istanbul, Turkey
[2] Istanbul Tech Univ, Fac Civil Engn, Hydraul & Water Resources Div, TR-34469 Istanbul, Turkey
关键词
Climate change; CMIP5; Drought indices; Turkey; BIAS-CORRECTION METHODS; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX; CLIMATE-CHANGE; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT; TREND ANALYSIS; MANN-KENDALL; RIVER-BASIN; CHINA; VARIABILITY; SIMULATIONS;
D O I
10.1007/s12665-020-8881-0
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
During the coming years, a dramatic increase is expected in the number of drought events mainly due to climate change. In this study, the spatio-temporal variations of duration and intensity of drought events during two 30-year periods in the future (2040-2069 and 2070-2099) together with the reference period (1971-2000) were investigated based on the impacts of climate change. Three drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index, the China Z Index, and the Statistical Z Score were calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data from the outputs of GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR general circulation models (GCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Western Black Sea (WBS) and the Euphrates-Tigris (ET) basins in Turkey. The biases in the GCMs' precipitation were corrected using the linear scaling method. Additionally, the Mann-Kendall trend test was adapted to the values of drought indices to detect the trend. The results of the study showed that there is no meaningful variation between the different drought indices and also the outputs of various GCMs in terms of drought properties. On the other hand, based on the drought indices values calculated from the outputs of all GCMs, it was found that drought duration and intensity will increase during the current century. Additionally, it was concluded that by taking the spatial distribution of drought properties over the basins into the account, there is a slight relationship between the geographical elevation and drought properties over the WBS and the ET basins.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 71 条
[1]   A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature [J].
Ahmadalipour, Ali ;
Moradkhani, Hamid ;
Demirel, Mehmet C. .
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2017, 553 :785-797
[2]   Assessment of areal interpolation methods for spatial analysis of SPI and EDI drought indices [J].
Akhtari, Rouhanyiz ;
Morid, Saeed ;
Mahdian, Mohammad Hossain ;
Smakhtin, Vladimir .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2009, 29 (01) :135-145
[3]   Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches [J].
Anagnostopoulou, Christina .
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 129 (1-2) :587-605
[4]   Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change: Coruh River Basin, Turkey [J].
Aras, Egemen .
ADVANCES IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, 2018, 7 (02) :121-138
[5]   Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961-2013 [J].
Ayantobo, Olusola O. ;
Li, Yi ;
Song, Songbai ;
Yao, Ning .
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2017, 550 :549-567
[6]   Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in the Aegean region, Turkey [J].
Bacanli, Ulker Guner .
METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 2017, 24 (02) :239-249
[7]   Frequency analyses of extreme precipitation events in Western Black Sea Basin (Turkey) based on climate change projections [J].
Balov, Mustafa Nuri ;
Altunkaynak, Abduesselam .
METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 2019, 26 (03) :468-482
[8]   Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model [J].
Betts, Richard A. ;
Alfieri, Lorenzo ;
Bradshaw, Catherine ;
Caesar, John ;
Feyen, Luc ;
Friedlingstein, Pierre ;
Gohar, Laila ;
Koutroulis, Aristeidis ;
Lewis, Kirsty ;
Morfopoulos, Catherine ;
Papadimitriou, Lamprini ;
Richardson, Katy J. ;
Tsanis, Ioannis ;
Wyser, Klaus .
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2018, 376 (2119)
[9]   Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region: evaluation of the reference period [J].
Bozkurt, Deniz ;
Turuncoglu, Ufuk ;
Sen, Omer Lutfi ;
Onol, Baris ;
Dalfes, H. Nuzhet .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2012, 39 (1-2) :207-225
[10]   Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management [J].
Carrao, Hugo ;
Naumann, Gustavo ;
Barbosa, Paulo .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 50 (5-6) :2137-2155