Diversification in the Middle East: From Crude Trends to Refined Policies

The paper takes stock of key trends in export diversification in MENA oil exporting countries. It concludes that since the early 1980s, diversification in goods exports has been limited, whereas in services, diversification has been more pronounced. GCC countries have diversified slightly better than other MENA oil exporters. Diversification has been largely based on exploiting existing comparative advantages in fuels with a number of recent attempts to develop comparative advantages in new areas. It has also been intensive within traditional product groups and forward-looking along the global value chains. The paper proposes a multidimensional framework for the macroeconomic assessment of diversification outcomes and policies.