Heterogeneity in epidemic models and its effect on the spread of infection

被引:28
作者
Andersson, H [1 ]
Britton, T
机构
[1] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
[2] Uppsala Univ, Dept Math, S-75106 Uppsala, Sweden
关键词
epidemic model; heterogeneous population; total size; household population;
D O I
10.1239/jap/1032265213
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
We first study an epidemic amongst a population consisting of individuals with the same infectivity but with varying susceptibilities to the disease. The asymptotic final epidemic size is compared with the corresponding size for a homogeneous population. Then we group a heterogeneous population into households, assuming very high infectivity within households, and investigate how the global infection pressure is affected by rearranging individuals between the households. In both situations considered, it turns out that whether or not homogenizing the individuals or households will result in an increased spread of infection actually depends on the infectiousness of the disease.
引用
收藏
页码:651 / 661
页数:11
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