Time series analysis of dental care procedures in Brazilian public services, 1994-2007

The objectives of this study were to describe the time series of monthly rates of five dental care procedures in the Brazilian public health system and to assess changes in trends of dental procedures from 1994 to 2007. Data were collated from the Outpatient Information System of the Unified Health System (SIA-SUS). Monthly rates of total dental care procedures, preventive procedures, collective procedures, restorations and extractions for the whole country and total procedures for each macro-region were calculated. Time series were analyzed using moving average and SARIMA models. There was a decrease in trends of restorative care and tooth extraction rates. The major alterations occurred between January 1998 and January 2000. In October 1999 the total rate of dental procedures per thousand inhabitants increased by 30.5 procedures, i.e. 55%, and after the introduction of the Oral Health Teams (ESB) in the Family Health Program (PSF) in December 2000, the increase was 5.9 procedures, i.e. 6.9%. There were also strong seasonal variations. The conclusion was that the main changes in the series occurred due to the municipalization process, though after the introduction of the ESB-PSF program, there was an increase in the total rate of dental procedures.