Distribution Transformer Aging Due to COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place

Shelter-in-place orders induced by COVID-19 prevention may age distribution transformers numerous years in just several months. The following manuscript summarizes an analysis performed to identify distribution transformers' susceptibility to extreme aging and failure due to load profiles influenced by COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders. The results suggest only transformers serving peak demands greater than their rating may be susceptible to "sooner-than-expected" failure. The results also indicate transformers may only be susceptible if shelter-in-place orders continue longer than 6 months in warm climates. A 50 kVA liquid immersed transformer that originally served loads 120% of their ratings can age up to 4 years if the order was enforced longer than 6 months. For comparison, a transformer serving the historical load profile with a peak demand of 130% loading only ages 0.7 years in the six-month period. This same transformer ages 4.8 years if influenced by shelter-in-place orders. Therefore, utilities may see a higher number of transformer failures over the next several years due aging associated with one or multiple shelter-in-place orders.