The Exploratory Modeling Workbench: An open source toolkit for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and (multi-objective) robust decision making

被引:133
作者
Kwakkel, Jan H. [1 ]
机构
[1] Fac Technol Policy & Management, Jaffalaan 5,POB 5015, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Deep uncertainty; Exploratory modeling; Scenario discovery; Many-objective robust decision making; ADAPTIVE POLICY PATHWAYS; DEEP UNCERTAINTY; SYSTEM; ADAPTATION; ALGORITHMS; COMPLEX; SEARCH; IMPACT; FUTURE;
D O I
10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.054
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the various presently irresolvable uncertainties. This is achieved by conducting series of computational experiments that cover how the various uncertainties might resolve. This paper presents an open source library supporting this. The Exploratory Modeling Workbench is implemented in Python. It is designed to (i) support the generation and execution of series of computational experiments; and (ii) support the visualization and analysis of the results from the computational experiments. The Exploratory Modeling Workbench enables users to easily perform exploratory modeling with existing models, identify the policy-relevant uncertainties, assess the efficacy of policy options, and iteratively improve candidate strategies. (C) 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:239 / 250
页数:12
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