Prediction model for pneumonia in primary care patients with an acute respiratory tract infection: role of symptoms, signs, and biomarkers

Background: Diagnosing pneumonia can be challenging in general practice but is essential to distinguish from other respiratory tract infections because of treatment choice and outcome prediction. We determined predictive signs, symptoms and biomarkers for the presence of pneumonia in patients with acute respiratory tract infection in primary care. Methods: From March 2012 until May 2016 we did a prospective observational cohort study in three radiology departments in the Leiden-The Hague area, The Netherlands. From adult patients we collected clinical characteristics and biomarkers, chest X ray results and outcome. To assess the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin and midregional pro-adrenomedullin for pneumonia, univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were used to determine risk factors and to develop a prediction model. Results: Two hundred forty-nine patients were included of whom 30 (12%) displayed a consolidation on chest X ray. Absence of runny nose and whether or not a patient felt ill were independent predictors for pneumonia. CRP predicts pneumonia better than the other biomarkers but adding CRP to the clinical model did not improve classification (- 4%); however, CRP helped guidance of the decision which patients should be given antibiotics. Conclusions: Adding CRP measurements to a clinical model in selected patients with an acute respiratory infection does not improve prediction of pneumonia, but does help in giving guidance on which patients to treat with antibiotics. Our findings put the use of biomarkers and chest X ray in diagnosing pneumonia and for treatment decisions into some perspective for general practitioners.