Prediction of overall survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: histogram analysis of ADC value and correlation with pathological intratumoral necrosis

Background To evaluate the utility of histogram analysis (HA) of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values to predict the overall survival (OS) in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and to correlate with pathologically evaluated massive intratumoral necrosis (MITN). Materials and methods Thirty-nine patients were included in this retrospective study with surgically resected PDAC who underwent preoperative magnetic resonance imaging. Twelve patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. HA on the ADC maps were performed to obtain the tumor HA parameters. Using Cox proportional regression analysis adjusted for age, time-dependent receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and Kaplan-Meier estimation, we evaluated the association between HA parameters and OS. The association between prognostic factors and pathologically confirmed MITN was assessed by logistic regression analysis. Results The median OS was 19.9 months. The kurtosis (P < 0.001), entropy (P = 0.013), and energy (P = 0.04) were significantly associated with OS. The kurtosis had the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 3-year survival (AUC 0.824) among these three parameters. Between the kurtosis and MITN, the logistic regression model revealed a positive correlation (P = 0.045). Lower survival rates occurred in patients with high kurtosis (cutoff value > 2.45) than those with low kurtosis (<= 2.45) (P < 0.001: 1-year survival rate, 75.2% versus 100%: 3-year survival rate, 14.7% versus 100%). Conclusions HA derived kurtosis obtained from tumor ADC maps might be a potential imaging biomarker for predicting the presence of MITN and OS in patients with PDAC.