Fuzzy risks and an updating algorithm with new observations

被引：56

作者：

Chongfu Huang ^{[1
,2
]}

Da Ruan ^{[3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[2] Civil Affairs & Minist Educ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[3] CEN SCK, Belgian Nucl Res Ctr, B-2400 Mol, Belgium

[4] Univ Ghent, Dept Appl Math & Comp Sci, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

来源：

RISK ANALYSIS | 2008年 / 28卷 / 03期

关键词：

fuzzy probability; interior-outer-set model; possibility-probability distribution; risk;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01057.x

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Concerning the essence of risk, we suggest a new definition of risk: a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. In many cases, risks are rather fuzzy for our perception because of the shortage of knowledge or information about the systems that determine the adverse incidents. We introduce a concept of fuzzy risk based on the new risk definition and fuzzy sets. And, in this article, we suggest a fuzzy average algorithm to update a fuzzy risk that stores all information from the original data. To illustrate the algorithm, we update a soft risk map of flood where the fuzzy risks are calculated using the interior-outer-set model.

引用

页码：681 / 694

页数：14

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