Hydrologic Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

被引：35

作者：

Viger, Roland J. ^{[1
]}

Hay, Lauren E. ^{[1
]}

Markstrom, Steven L. ^{[1
]}

Jones, John W. ^{[2
]}

Buell, Gary R. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] US Geol Survey, Denver, CO 80225 USA

[2] US Geol Survey, Reston, VA 22092 USA

[3] US Geol Survey, Atlanta, GA USA

来源：

EARTH INTERACTIONS | 2011年 / 15卷

关键词：

Hydrologic simulation; Urbanization; Land-cover change; Climate change; Surface depression storage; Effective imperviousness; Streamflow; Climate impacts; Human impacts; Modeling; LAND-USE CHANGE; 3 MOUNTAINOUS BASINS; FORE-SCE MODEL; GROUNDWATER RECHARGE; GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION; IMPERVIOUS COVER; UNITED-STATES; RUNOFF; IMPACTS; SCENARIOS;

D O I：

10.1175/2010EI369.1

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically down-scaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface-runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

引用

页码：1 / 25

页数：25

共 63 条

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