Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?

被引：54

作者：

Easaw, JZ ^{[1
]}

Garratt, D

Heravi, SM

机构：

[1] Univ Bath, Dept Econ, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England

[2] Nottingham Trent Univ, Div Econ, Nottingham NG1 4BU, England

[3] Univ Wales Coll Cardiff, Cardiff Business Sch, Cardiff CF1 3EU, Wales

来源：

JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS | 2005年 / 27卷 / 03期

关键词：

consumer sentiment; forecastability; household consumption behavior; instrumental variables; directional analysis;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmacro.2004.03.001

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates how well survey data depicting consumer sentiment forecasts household's consumption behavior for the UK. We consider whether consumer sentiment is able to predict the growth of household's consumption, in addition to the growth of labor income. The empirical analysis finds that Consumer Confidence Indices (CCI) does predict the household's consumption of durable goods. We also draw comparisons with recent analysis for the US. In addition, we analyze whether both the UK and US CCI are accurate and useful predictors of household's consumption growth using directional analysis. We find that the UK confidence indicators predict better the US. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：517 / 532

页数：16

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