A Three-Component Biomarker Panel for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

被引：76

作者：

Brasier, Allan R. ^{[1
]}

Ju, Hyunsu ^{[2
]}

Garcia, Josefina ^{[3
]}

Spratt, Heidi M. ^{[2
]}

Victor, Sundar S. ^{[4
]}

Forshey, Brett M. ^{[3
]}

Halsey, Eric S. ^{[3
]}

Comach, Guillermo ^{[5
]}

Sierra, Gloria ^{[5
]}

Blair, Patrick J. ^{[6
]}

Rocha, Claudio ^{[3
]}

Morrison, Amy C. ^{[7
]}

Scott, Thomas W. ^{[7
]}

Bazan, Isabel ^{[5
]}

Kochel, Tadeusz J. ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] UTMB, Dept Internal Med, Galveston, TX 77555 USA

[2] UTMB, Dept Prevent Med & Community Hlth, Galveston, TX 77555 USA

[3] US Naval Med Res Unit Six Unit 3230, Dpo Aa, FL USA

[4] UTMB, Dept Biochem & Mol Biol, Galveston, TX 77555 USA

[5] Univ Carabobo, Inst Invest Biomed, Estado Aragua, Venezuela

[6] USN, Hlth Res Ctr, San Diego, CA 92152 USA

[7] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Entomol, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[8] USN, Viral & Rickettsial Dis Dept, Med Res Ctr, Silver Spring, MD USA

来源：

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE | 2012年 / 86卷 / 02期

关键词：

DISEASE SEVERITY; INFECTION; VIRUS; AMERICA;

D O I：

10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0469

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DIP and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-.10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome.

引用

页码：341 / 348

页数：8

共 28 条

[1] Cell Type Specificity and Host Genetic Polymorphisms Influence Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Dengue Virus Infection [J].