Evaluation of the effect of product demand uncertainty on manufacturing system selection

The use of advanced manufacturing systems is widespread; however, manufacturers frequently face difficult decisions when it comes to selecting the most appropriate system. Uncertainty regarding product demand makes this process more difficult, as many factors are influencing simultaneously. This paper focuses on analyzing the demand uncertainty on the performance of modular drilling manufacturing systems versus other alternatives and evaluating the uncertainty's impacts on the final decision. To do so, a model is suggested and the effect of demand uncertainty on the output is investigated. Three automotive components of varying complexity are used to examine the approach for making reliable decisions. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.