Survival and prognostic factors of invasive aspergillosis after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation

To determine prognostic factors for survival in bone marrow transplant recipients with invasive aspergillosis (IA), we retrospectively reviewed 27 IA cases observed in our bone marrow transplantation unit between January 1994 and October 1994, On 30 September 1997, six patients were alive and disease-free. The median survival after IA diagnosis was 36 days. Of eight variables found to be related to survival according to the univariate analysis, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) status at IA diagnosis (P = .0008) and the cumulative prednisolone dose taken during the week preceding IA diagnosis (CPD1w) (P < .0001) were selected by a backward stepwise Cox regression model. A three-stage classification was established: CPD1w of less than or equal to 7 mg/kg (3 of 8 patients died; 60-day survival rate, 88%), CPD1w of >7 mg/kg and no GVHD (9 of 10 patients died; 60-day survival rate, 20%), and CPD1w of >7 mg/kg and active acute grade 2 or more or extensive chronic GVHD (9 of 9 patients died; 30-day survival rate, 0) (P < .0001).