An aggregation-decomposition bayesian stochastic optimization model for cascade hydropower reservoirs using medium-range precipitation forecasts

被引：1
|
作者：
Peng, Yong [1 ]
Xu, Wei [2 ]
Zhang, Xiaoli [3 ]
机构：
[1] Dalian Univ Technol, Sch Hydraul Engn, Dalian, Peoples R China
[2] Chongqing Jiaotong Univ, Coll River & Ocean Engn, Chongqing, Peoples R China
[3] North China Univ Water Resources & Elect, Sch Water Conservancy, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China
来源：
2ND ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFORMATION SYSTEM AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (ISAI2017) | 2017年 / 887卷
关键词：
D O I：
10.1088/1742-6596/887/1/012005
中图分类号：
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号：
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要：
The forecast information is essential to improve the utilization efficiency of hydropower resources. To address the uncertainties of forecasting inflow, the Aggregation-Decomposition Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (AD-BSDP) model is presented in the present paper by using the 10-days precipitation value of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Global Forecast System (GFS-QPFs). The application in China's Hun River cascade hydropower reservoirs shows that the GFS-QPFs are beneficial for hydropower generation and the performance of AD-BSDP is more efficiency and reliability than the others models.
引用
收藏
页数：8
相关论文
共 22 条
  • [1] Stochastic optimization operation for cascade hydropower reservoirs by using precipitation forecasts I. Using aggregation-decomposition methodology to reduce high computational costs
    Peng, Y. (pengyong@dlut.edu.cn), 1600, International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation and China Water and Power Press (44):
  • [2] Value of Medium-range Precipitation Forecasts in Inflow Prediction and Hydropower Optimization
    Tang, Guolei
    Zhou, Huicheng
    Li, Ningning
    Wang, Feng
    Wang, Yajun
    Jian, Deping
    WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, 2010, 24 (11) : 2721 - 2742
  • [3] Value of Medium-range Precipitation Forecasts in Inflow Prediction and Hydropower Optimization
    Guolei Tang
    Huicheng Zhou
    Ningning Li
    Feng Wang
    Yajun Wang
    Deping Jian
    Water Resources Management, 2010, 24 : 2721 - 2742
  • [4] Stochastic optimization operation for cascade hydropower reservoirs by using precipitation forecasts II. Coupling short and medium-term information
    Xu, Wei
    Peng, Yong
    Zhang, Chi
    Wang, Ben-De
    Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2013, 44 (10): : 1189 - 1196
  • [5] Evaluation of the effective forecast and decision horizon in optimal hydropower generation considering medium-range precipitation forecasts
    Wei, Xu
    Xun, Yang
    WATER SUPPLY, 2019, 19 (07) : 2147 - 2155
  • [6] FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTERS MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
    ROADS, JO
    MAISEL, TN
    ALPERT, J
    WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 1991, 6 (04) : 483 - 497
  • [7] Effect of the quality of streamflow forecasts on the operation of cascade hydropower stations using stochastic optimization models
    Liu, Yuan
    Ji, Changming
    Wang, Yi
    Zhang, Yanke
    Jiang, Zhiqiang
    Ma, Qiumei
    Hou, Xiaoning
    ENERGY, 2023, 273
  • [8] Using a Bayesian joint probability approach to improve the skill of medium-range forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall
    Samal, Nibedita
    Ashwin, R.
    Singhal, Akshay
    Jha, Sanjeev Kumar
    Robertson, David E.
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES, 2023, 45
  • [9] Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: 1. Deterministic forecasting
    Shin, DW
    Krishnamurti, TN
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2003, 108 (D8)
  • [10] Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: 2. Probabilistic forecasting
    Shin, DW
    Krishnamurti, TN
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2003, 108 (D8)
123