Climate Change and Recreation: Evidence from North American Cycling

There is extensive research documenting the economic consequences of climate change, yet our understanding of climate impacts on nonmarket activities remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the effect of weather on recreation demand. Using data from 27 million bicycle trips in 16 North American cities, we estimate how outdoor recreation responds to daily weather fluctuations. We find empirically that cyclists dislike cold temperatures much more than hot temperatures, suggesting potential gains from warming. However, the overall response to extreme heat is mitigated, in part, by intraday adaptation towards recreating during cooler times of day. Combining these estimates with time-use survey data and climate projections, our models suggest annual surplus gains of $894 million from climate-induced cycling by mid-century.