Using the NARMAX approach to model the evolution of energetic electrons fluxes at geostationary orbit

被引：106

作者：

Balikhin, M. A. ^{[1
]}

Boynton, R. J. ^{[1
]}

Walker, S. N. ^{[1
]}

Borovsky, J. E. ^{[2
]}

Billings, S. A. ^{[1
]}

Wei, H. L. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Sheffield, Dept Automat Control & Syst Engn, Sheffield S1 3JD, S Yorkshire, England

[2] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2011年 / 38卷

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

INHOMOGENEOUS MAGNETOSPHERIC PLASMA; NONLINEAR PROCESSES; IDENTIFICATION; DYNAMICS; WAVES;

D O I：

10.1029/2011GL048980

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Recently published data from Reeves et al. (2011) on the fluxes of 1.8-3.5 MeV electrons at geostationary orbit are subjected to Error Reduction Ratio (ERR) analysis in order to identify the parameters that control variance of these fluxes. ERR shows that it is the solar wind density not the velocity that controls most of the variance of the energetic electrons fluxes. High fluxes are observed under the conditions of low density in absolute majority of cases. Under the condition of fixed density the dependence of fluxes upon the velocity is the following: fluxes increase with the velocity reaching some saturation level. Both the level of saturation and the value of the velocity where it is achieved decrease with the increase of solar wind density. Citation: Balikhin, M. A., R. J. Boynton, S. N. Walker, J. E. Borovsky, S. A. Billings, and H. L. Wei (2011), Using the NARMAX approach to model the evolution of energetic electrons fluxes at geostationary orbit, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18105, doi:10.1029/2011GL048980.

引用

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