A novel structural risk index for primary spontaneous pneumothorax: Ankara Numune Risk Index

Background: In this study, we aimed to reveal a novel risk index as a structural risk marker for primary spontanoeus pneumothorax using body mass index and chest height, structural risk factors for pneumothorax development. Methods: Records of 86 cases admitted between February 2014 and January 2015 with or without primary spontaneous pneumothorax were analysed retrospectively. The patients were allocated to two groups as Group I and Group II. The patients were evaluated with regard to age, gender, pneumothorax side, duration of hospital stay, treatment type, recurrence, chest height and transverse diameter on posteroanterior chest graphy and body mass index. Body mass index ratio per cm of chest height was calculated by dividing body mass index with chest height. We named this risk index ratio which is defined first as 'Ankara Numune Risk Index'. Diagnostic value of Ankara Numune Risk Index value for prediction of primary spontaneous pneumothorax development was analysed with Receiver Operating Characteristics curver. Results: Of 86 patients, 69 (80.2%) were male and 17 (19.8%) were female. Each group was composed of 43 (50%) patients. When Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analysis was done for optimal limit value 0.74 of Ankara Numune Risk Index determined for prediction of pneumothorax development risk, area under the curve was 0.925 (95% Cl, 0.872-0.977, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Ankara Numune Risk Index is one of the structural risk factors for prediction of primary spontaneous pneumothorax development however it is insufficient for determining recurrence. (C) 2015 Asian Surgical Association and Taiwan Robotic Surgical Association. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.