Active fault synthetical assessment and coal and gas outburst fatalness prediction

The occurrence of coal and gas outburst distributes territorially that is controlled by geological structure especially active fault. At present, it is considered that coal and gas outburst is the synthetical result of stress, gas, coal configuration etc. and geological structure plays a dominant role. Active fault information, which are distilled from active structure based on geo-dynamic division, regional stress measure and simulation study, gas geology research, fractal research and geology reconnoitering result, is synthetically intelligent analyzed. On the basis of analyzing internal relations between every influence factors and outburst fatalness, the multi-factor pattern recognition probability prediction method is applied to pattern measure multi-factor affecting outburst, to classify the fatalness of region coal and gas outburst, to divide into coal and gas outburst dangerous area,threat area and safety area, to assess and predict the danger of coal and gas outburst. Consequently the quantificational synthesis criterion including influence factors assessment is educed. The visualization managements of coal and gas outburst prediction are achieved, then the accuracy of gas of coal and gas outburst predict was improved.