Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

被引:314
作者
Serreze, Mark C. [1 ]
Stroeve, Julienne [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[2] UCL, Ctr Polar Observat & Modelling, London WC1E 6BT, England
来源
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2015年 / 373卷 / 2045期
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
sea ice; atmospheric variability; feedbacks; prediction; trends; SUMMER CYCLONE; EXTENT; THICKNESS; MINIMUM; AGE;
D O I
10.1098/rsta.2014.0159
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability.
引用
收藏
页数:16
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