Disruption prediction with adaptive neural networks for ASDEX Upgrade

this paper, an adaptive neural system has been built to predict the risk of disruption at ASDEX Upgrade. The system contains a Self Organizing Map, which determines the 'novelty' of the input of a Multi Layer Perceptron predictor module. The answer of the MLP predictor will be inhibited whenever a novel sample is detected. Furthermore, it is possible that the predictor produces a wrong answer although it is fed with known samples. In this case, a retraining procedure will be performed to update the MLP predictor in an incremental fashion using data coming from both the novelty detection, and from wrong predictions. In particular, a new update is performed whenever a missed alarm is triggered by the predictor. The performance of the adaptive predictor during the more recent experimental campaigns until November 2009 has been evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.