How reliable are hog futures as forecasts?

被引：27
作者：
Carter, Colin A. [1 ]
Mohapatra, Sandeep [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Agr & Resources Econ, Davis, CA 95616 USA
[2] Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB, Canada
来源：
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 2008年 / 90卷 / 02期
关键词：
nonstorable futures; lean hog futures; futures efficiency;
D O I：
10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01122.x
中图分类号：
F3 [农业经济];
学科分类号：
0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;
摘要：
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. We find that from 1998 to 2004, the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices.
引用
收藏
页码：367 / 378
页数：12
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