Dynamic Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007: An Investigation of Predictive and Incremental Validity

被引：67

作者：

Eher, Reinhard ^{[1
,2
]}

Matthes, Anna ^{[3
]}

Schilling, Frank ^{[1
]}

Haubner-MacLean, Tanja ^{[1
]}

Rettenberger, Martin ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] FECVSO, A-1210 Vienna, Austria

[2] Univ Ulm, Ulm, Germany

[3] Jugendanstalt Hameln, Hameln, Germany

来源：

SEXUAL ABUSE-A JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND TREATMENT | 2012年 / 24卷 / 01期

关键词：

STABLE-2000; STABLE-2007; STATIC-99; SORAG; predictive validity; incremental validity; sex offender; ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENTS; ACTUARIAL ASSESSMENT; RECIDIVISM RISK; STATIC-99; METAANALYSIS; ACCURACY; SCALE; VALIDATION; RELAPSE;

D O I：

10.1177/1079063211403164

中图分类号：

B849 [应用心理学];

学科分类号：

040203 ;

摘要：

The predictive accuracy of STABLE-2000 and STABLE-2007 was examined within a prospective research design in a German-speaking sample of 263 adult male prison-released sexual offenders followed up for an average of 6.4 years. The STABLE-2007 was significantly related to all outcomes (AUC = 0.67-0.71), whereas the STABLE-2000 demonstrated only weak predictive accuracy for sexual reoffense (AUC = 0.62). Supporting the results of the construction sample, the STABLE-2007 incrementally added to the predictive accuracy of the STATIC-99 for violent and general reoffense (conviction and incarceration). Moreover, the STABLE-2007 total scores and the nominal risk/need categories made significant incremental contributions over the SORAG for predicting sexual reoffense.

引用

页码：5 / 28

页数：24

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