Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

被引：125

作者：

Baumeister, Christiane ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Korobilis, Dimitris ^{[4
]}

Lee, Thomas K. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] CEPR, Washington, DC 20009 USA

[4] Univ Glasgow, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland

[5] US Energy Informat Adm, Washington, DC USA

来源：

REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS | 2022年 / 104卷 / 04期

关键词：

VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS; REAL PRICE; OIL; DEMAND; UNCERTAINTY; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1162/rest_a_00977

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.

引用

页码：828 / 844

页数：17

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